In mid-December, NSIDC senior research scientist and ASINA-contributor Julienne Stroeve joined the second leg of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Change (MOSAiC) expedition. Because consistently low extents defined the decade, the September trend was essentially zero over 2010 to 2019. In the Southern Hemisphere, the summer ice loss rate slowed somewhat during the month. The extreme conditions of the far north have offered unique challenges to the scientists, including the arrival of a major storm that opened up a lead directly under their research site. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. Scientists blog from Antarctica and provide a glimpse of what it's like to do research in the field. Figure 1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently published their Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, providing an overview of the state of the science. Figure 3. doi:10.1126/science.aag2345. As was also the case in 2018, the Bering Sea had extremely low sea ice cover during the winter of 2019 (Figure 6b). No record-breaker maximum. How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? It was the 11th-lowest maximum in the 42-year satellite record. It is likely these high temperatures, combined with ice motion away from the coast, initiated early ice retreat along the Russian coast, leading to the present low ice extent (Figure 2d). See About the Cryosphere. Arctic sea ice extent was persistently low through the decade, punctuated by the record low September minimum of 2012. Air temperatures in the Arctic region were above average throughout the year, particularly during spring and summer. NSIDC. Under our current emission trajectory, ice-free conditions are likely in the coming decades. Such fast growth is not surprising. The seasonal onset of melt was particularly early, contributing to record low extent during April. Press direct line: +1 303.492.1497. While there are many uncertainties in these characteristics, subtracting the two values—ICESat-2 height minus CryoSat-2 height—can potentially provide an estimate of snow thickness, a key variable needed to accurately determine sea ice thickness. This photo shows the RV Polarstern, the German icebreaker that is frozen into Arctic sea ice during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Change expedition. Stroeve is part of the “Remote Sensing City” group, a team that is using passive and active microwave instruments to study the sea ice and to gather improved information on sea ice thickness and snow depth. The storm endangered the group’s equipment, though they were luckily able to move their instruments to safer ice. During May and June, the rate of ice loss remained well below average. Figure 1. Here, sea ice extent was at record low levels during October and November; sea surface temperatures remained 5 to 7 degrees Celsius (9 to 13 degrees Fahrenheit) above average well into the autumn. On March 24, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported that the 2019–2020 growth season had an unexceptional finish: 5.81 million square miles (15.05 million square kilometers). Monthly December ice extent for 1979 to 2019 shows a decline of 3.6 percent per decade.Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center High-resolution image. Slightly above-average extent remained along much of the East Antarctic coast. This is comparable to the size of Alaska and California combined. This color-coded map shows Arctic sea ice concentration on March 5, 2020. Low extent for the Arctic as a whole is largely driven by extensive open water in the Laptev and Barents Seas, continuing the pattern that began this spring and was discussed in the previous post. The oldest ice (more than 4-years old), which once covered about 30 percent of the Arctic Ocean in the 1980s, has nearly disappeared by the end of this decade. Total ice extent is less variable this time of year as compared to summer. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Nature Climate Change. Although Arctic sea ice has not declined in winter as rapidly as it has in summer, winter sea ice is now well below the 1981–2010 average. By contrast, extent north of Alaska is near the 1981 to 2010 average for this time of year. Scambos is the lead American scientific coordinator for the mission and a member of the Thwaites-Amundsen Regional Survey and Network (TARSAN) project team. December 2019 sea ice grew by an average of 82,100 square kilometers (31,700 square miles) per day. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of January 6, 2020, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. In this graph, extent-line shades range from light green (older decades) to deep blue (recent decades). A. Also visible is the smoke from wildfires surging in Siberia. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for December 2019. Figure 1: 10-year averages between 1979 and 2018 and yearly averages for 2007, 2012, and 2020 of the daily (a) ice extent and (b) ice area in the Northern Hemisphere and a listing of the extent and area of the current, historical mean, minimum, and maximum values in km2.

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