The process relies on the Delphi method, whittling down a long list of trends and technologies by a process of ranking and voting until six key trends, six emerging technologies remain. The Internet was not invented in 1991. Why? We humans, in this framework, have no choice. Disclosure/disclaimer: I am a folklorist by training. Remove vertical and horizontal grid lines in the chart. The first forecast should begin in March, which is cell C6. This is why this sort of forecasting is so important for us to scrutinize – to do so quantitatively and qualitatively, to look at methods and at theory, to ask who’s telling the story and who’s spreading the story, to listen for counter-narratives. A former writer and editor at Business Week, Inc. and Financial World, in addition to my six years at Forbes, I've written, co-written and “ghosted” numerous best-sellers including Customers for Life (with Carl Sewell.) In October of 2006, Gartner said that Apple’s “best bet for long-term success is to quit the hardware business and license the Mac to Dell.” Less than three months later, Apple introduced the iPhone. But “truthy,” to borrow from Stephen Colbert’s notion of “truthiness.”) So you repeat the fantasy in order to direct and to control the future. The slope of the line is 78.08 and the y-intercept is 7930.35. (Not factual. So to predict that the vast vast majority of these schools (save Harvard, of course) will go away in the next decade or so or that they’ll be bankrupt or replaced by Silicon Valley’s version of online training is simply wishful thinking – dangerous, wishful thinking from two prominent figures who will benefit greatly if this particular fantasy comes true (and not just because they’ll get to claim that they predicted this future). The organization invites various “experts” to participate in the advisory board that, throughout the course of each year, works on assembling its list of emerging technologies. The formula used to calculate 2017 revenue is =C7*(1+D5). The markets, according to the press releases, are always growing. )how we traditionally reason is extremely limited in predicting what will happen. My latest book, which I co-authored with Leonard A. Schlesinger and Charles F. Kiefer is Just Start: Take Action; Embrace Uncertainity; Create the Future published by Harvard Business Review Press. The Hype Cycle doesn’t help explain why technologies move from one stage to another. So pray for Harvard Business School if you wouldn’t mind.”. “Market research” involves fantastic stories of future markets. What might these predictions – this history of the future – tell us about the wishful thinking surrounding education technology and about the direction that the people the New Media Consortium views as “experts” want the future to take. But that’s the story that people tell nevertheless. It’s a powerful story, but not a prediction made based on data or modeling or quantitative research into the growing (or shrinking) higher education sector. So it is written. Will they? EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change. Perform financial forecasting, reporting, and operational metrics tracking, analyze financial data, create financial models. The relationship between radio ads and revenue by running a regression analysis on the whole, to... 25,000 universities in the end it is simply too optimistic, unreasonably so, do... 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